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From macro thesis to actionable investment idea

Stage 1
Define the macro thesis
Formulate clear hypothesis
Start with a top-down, macroeconomic, or sector-specific idea. Formulate a clear, testable hypothesis. Example: 'The US industrial sector will receive a major boost from increased government infrastructure spending.'
Stage 2
Create a universe of potential stocks
Bottom-up screening via Bloomberg EQS
Use Bloomberg Terminal EQS (Equity Screener) to build a universe. Apply filters: 1) Liquidity/Listing: Active stocks, primary listings, specific exchanges (e.g., US Exchanges). 2) Sector: Select relevant sector (e.g., Industrials), exclude irrelevant sub-sectors. 3) Financial Metrics: Market cap >$500M, EV/EBITDA < 12x, positive cash flow, Debt/EBITDA limits. Sort final list by key metrics (performance, valuation, volatility) to prioritize research.
OR top-down index/ETF analysis
Alternative method: Use Bloomberg General Search to find relevant sector index/ETF (e.g., 'US Industrials ETF'). Identify large, liquid fund (e.g., XLI US Equity). Use DES (Description) for overview, then PORT (Portfolio Analysis) to view holdings - provides pre-vetted list of significant companies in the sector.
Stage 3
Deep-dive on shortlisted companies
Data aggregation & initial analysis
Use Microsoft Excel with Bloomberg API Add-in. Build dashboard using Bloomberg API formulas (BDP, BDH, BQL) to pull: key financial data from statements, valuation multiples, technical price indicators (e.g., Z-score), business segment breakdown, analyst recommendations (from ANR screen).
Validate thesis & Government exposure
Use Bloomberg Government (BGOV) to validate thesis alignment. Search Contract Intel Tool for past/existing government contracts - filter by agency, vendor, industry. Search lobbying activity filings to understand spending on relevant legislation/policy influence.
In-depth financial analysis
Use Bloomberg Terminal FA (Financial Analysis) function. Analyze: historical financial statements (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow), calculated ratios and valuation multiples, consensus estimates for future quarters/years, segment-specific data.
Qualitative analysis - management & strategy
Search public domain (YouTube, news sites) and Bloomberg Terminal for: interviews, presentations, public appearances by senior management (CEO) to assess strategy, communication style, vision. Use Bloomberg DSCO (Document Search) to analyze: earnings call transcripts (tone, operational updates, future plans like capex, debt refinancing, analyst questions), SEC filings, press releases, broker research.
Capital structure analysis - Debt
Use Bloomberg Terminal for debt analysis: DDIS (Debt Distribution) to view debt maturity profile and outstanding issues. Click specific bond, use DES for characteristics (coupon, rating, maturity). Use GP (Graph Price) to chart historical bond price. Use YAS (Yield and Spread Analysis) for what-if analysis: calculate current YTM, YTW, spread over government bonds, duration.
Stage 4
External validation & experts
Consult with industry experts
Use Expert Networks (e.g., Gerson Lehrman Group - GLG) to schedule calls with vetted industry specialists (former employees, competitors, suppliers). Discuss: industry trends, company reputation, management quality, nuanced topics not in public documents.
Review sell-side research
Use Bloomberg Terminal BRC (Broker Research) and ANR (Analyst Recommendations), or direct bank relationships. Read reports from covering analysts to understand: consensus view, key risks, potential catalysts. Leverage sell-side relationships for direct analyst discussions for deeper insights.
Stage 5
Synthesize & conclude
Combine findings
Synthesize all quantitative (financials, valuation) and qualitative (management, industry position, expert views) findings.
Formulate recommendation
Formulate final investment recommendation (Buy/Sell/Hold for stock, or opinion on debt). Prepare presentation of thesis, research, and recommendation for Portfolio Manager or Investment Committee for final decision.

Template info

From macro thesis to actionable investment idea

A comprehensive workflow for institutional analysts to generate and research investment ideas from macro themes. This workflow covers universe creation, deep-dive analysis, external validation, and synthesis.

by ThesisBoard

Neutral
Type:Research
Category:Due Diligence
Asset class:Equity

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